Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Random Thought : USA vs CHINA. Who will win the War ?

I love to read on others opinions. Regardless of whatever issues and I think it is a very fun thing to do. Today, a question sparked in my mind. If China and USA are going for a death-match warfare against each other starting tomorrow, who will be victorious ?

Alright, I know in war nobody actually win and in fact all shall be labeled loser. So, if we going to measure this 'victory', let say whoever surrender or their government collapse and taken over by opposition force, then the winner is decided.

My opinion is, the greatest war on earth in the future must be between USA and CHINA. It is a known secret that the biggest concern of USA is CHINA unknown military power. Fact told us that USA is known as the most powerful military force in the world. They are superior and advance in term of weapon technology and air and sea warfare. Well, USA had spent nearly a trillion almost every year on their military expenditure which justify the reason of their mind blowing debt.

USA is really strong on military power is a known fact. And CHINA got no issue with it despite they got massive army and people on their land. I think this is why USA is quite worry actually. Nobody really know the true strength of CHINA. World statistic show that CHINA only spend 1/8 on the military expenditure compare to USA. By right, USA  could worry less because with the amount CHINA invest, it will take 20 more years for them to at least catch up with current USA military technology advancement.

But still, USA was sending spy plane to check it out and there were several cases where it get shot down.Well, CHINA used to be a close-door economy country and just opened up few decade ago. If I was USA, I will not take it too serious in trusting the fact and figure provided by CHINA about their military expenditure.

So, back to the point. If war really breakout between this two superpower. Who will emerged victorious? Each of them got their unfair advantage.

The fastest way to end the war and decide the winner is by flexing their nuclear muscle at the beginning. In that case, after each country finish exchanging their nuclear warhead and I bet North Korea will happily fire few nuclear to USA too as gift to CHINA *chuckle*, whoever 'last man standing' will be declared a winner. Till then, I guess the president could only partying enjoying the victory moment on their flying plane or submarine some where far from their country because it will be too hot and radioactive to celebrate.

So I guess, both party will agree to ban nuclear warfare from the start and USA will most likely be the pioneer to suggest this rule. LOL, cause it will be no fun to play a Mexican-stand off  with CHINA after all the trillions were spent on his military power. And I bet their allies will all run scattered for life and heavily fortified their border leave alone joining USA or CHINA for this greatest war in history to come.

Location / geography advantage
Though USA is smaller than CHINA, but their base and troops are all spreaded all over the world. Which to say, even before the war broke out, CHINA is already surrounded by USA existing bases and military. I guess the only place that will leave the opening for CHINA is on its north border with RUSSIA. Since RUSSIA is not really friendly with USA, I guess there will be not much to none USA military base over there. Hence, CHINA massive troop forces are confined in their vast land compared to US troops which are a lot lesser but they are everywhere.

Weapon technology
This is one tough factor to judge as nobody really know CHINA real fire power. Technology wise, the whole world is super confident with USA technology. You will be amazed if you try to watch few episodes of 'Future Weapon' in discovery channel. Other opinion said that it will be nearly impossible for CHINA to get a foothold on USA soil. As USA is very advanced in sea and air warfare. Speaking of transportation wise, it is either by air or by sea to deliver the troops. CHINA might have the most massive and strongest ground force in the world, but if all the ships and war planes get wiped and debunked before reaching the soil, the number mean nothing. But it will be unfair advantage for CHINA defenses. Such a massive forces will dry out USA bullets and still the troop's flow seem no end to it. It going to be a nightmare to those marines who fight their way in from the CHINA shore.

USA going to have a biggest headache ever. As many NGOs and opposition party pressure will crack their head. War in Iraq had caused George W. Bush his presidency. If USA decide to have war with CHINA, they must be ready to fight externally and internally. What will be the better time for opposition to make noise if not now ? And expect a lot of street demonstration and rioting which might rise from various of issues like insane spending of military expenditure, human right issue, war crime and whatnot. For CHINA, good thing is, they are not democratic to begin with and their people is use to that. If CHINA wanted a war, I guess their people will pour in their support.

There are million of troops in CHINA even they have aliened themselves from any kind of war since long time ago. I believe if war happened, they could easily double and triple the amount. They have no problem conscripting their people compare to USA. What CHINA got is the number until a point that they have to set a rule to control their population. I bet they have no problem at all replenish their entire forces from scratch even if it get wipe off completely. USA will have problem with that. Intensive drafting their people into service will create internal havoc from the NGOs, Human right and whatnot. Not to mention USA population is only 1/6 of  CHINA.

America is the biggest consumer in the world and is also CHINA biggest importer of their goods. So when
the war broke out between them, I guess both will face massive losses. USA will short of supplies in term of  foods, minerals, raw resources and others, while CHINA will lost big chunk of income from USA. Not to mention that USA has outsourced a lot of manufacturing and production factories in CHINA land. I guess the factories will have to close down and further shorten US supplies. Of course, CHINA will face a little financial problem and issue of people losing their jobs. But I guess it is still not a deadly condition for CHINA as CHINA had experience to run their country in close-door policy for centuries. CHINA country can be self-sustainable due to their vast agriculture. That is a good thing about a CHINA which heavily rely on export economy. I will worry if I am USA.Because CHINA is their largest debter. USA rely heavily on CHINA loan to keep their economy running. But I guess CHINA must ready to bite the bullet to forget about the debt USA owe to them. So in summary, in case of war. CHINA will start concentrate heavily on their agriculture and farming in order to sustain the war. For USA, they got to look for loan and selling bond heavily out there in order to sustain their war. In long run, CHINA will have a better advantage. So, if I am USA, I will try to end the war quickly.

This is a great unfair advantage for USA. History had shown that USA have many close allies such as Britain, Canada, Europe and a lot more. In time of war, this pacts have made their commitment to assist each other. This will easily increase USA military might several folds. For CHINA, which is feared of their sear troops number, this might be a bad news as it cut out their advantage of having a super massive troops.
I guess if CHINA will have allies to join him, high chances it will be RUSSIA and North Korea. Though the number of allies are significantly smaller compare to USA, but their strength is no joke. RUSSIA for one, is formidable for its military equipments and the infamous TSAR Hidrogen Bomb. North Korea is known for their big military forces and insane loyalty of their troops. Quite a balance if you ask me. The winning factor is depend on whoever allies decide to pull out from the alliance first to cap their losses. I guess Britain and few other European country wouldn't stay too long on the cause if they are very good on the maths. When USA declare war on Iraq, the victory is already decided. It is just a matter of weeks or months until the regime collapse. USA allies can see that. So without much word, they were jump along the bandwagon to claim a piece for themselves. But against CHINA and Russia ? with unknown victory and incalculable expenditure of war ? I doubt they will stay long enough to see the end of it.  

Internal Sabotage
I grown up watching a lot of American movies like James Bond, Rambo, Navy Seal, CSI, CIA and tonnes of war gender movie. Which successfully tell the world that US have great spies and intelligent asset. I have no doubt if US finest spies and commando like in TEAM SEAL SIX will successfully create internal sabotage in CHINA military system. There is also a high chances for this group of elite to assassinate the important figures even in their protective own soil. Heck, if they could infiltrate Pakistan and assassinate OSAMA without the knowing of PAKISTAN government itself, they could do the same to CHINA too. Tougher but not impossible. However, rarely people talk about CHINA spies and intelligent asset capability. But it doesn't mean that they are any weaker. This is the mystery that feared by USA. So little information of CHINA military power. They might have elite even more skillful than TEAM SEAL SIX. If CHINA could produce the most skilled sport athletes in the world, they could do the same to their soldiers. 

Finally, it is still very hard for me to foresee a winner here. Both have their advantages. If only the war is like during the Mediterranean age where both side of army stand in line facing each other and taking turn in exchanging shots, then I guess the winner will be CHINA. But the current warfare now is more like distance bombing and delivering missiles which is USA specialty. In military law, whoever control the air will win the war. Cause air superiority is vital for various reason. First is protect the ground force to gain a foothold on soil and proceed further advancement, second is to protect their long range weapon which most likely stationed in one place like howitzer cannon, rocket trucks and BattleShip. And to fend off enemy invasion whether by sea or air.

For current situation, it seem USA have an upper hand on air superiority. But no one know if CHINA got a good counter measurement about this. Like North Korea, they are quite smart to figure out that they can't rely on submarine, warplane or battle ship to deliver the nuclear missile to America. It is impossible ! it will get sunk even before they could even spot America soil from far. That is why they only work on their long range missile all this while with latest rumor that their missile could reach Washington DC even launch from their capital Pyongyang. Wao, that will really chill OBAMA spine big time.

What is your opinion folks ?


Miller Yu said...

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